News
Chinese steel prices scoot after a mild burst - 29 Jul, 2010
The one week saga of steel price hike in China seems to be getting over, rather quickly than one would have thought.

The climb down which commenced in re bars on July 27th and HRC prices started sliding on July 28th.

It is noteworthy that the steel prices in China had remained suppressed for the best part of Q2 squandering chances of attaining stability during the peak consumption period. However quite unusually the silence was broken on 19th July sending rumor mills agog with the possibility of a revival.

Experts in quandary started their post analysis imputing this uncanny movement to plethora of reasons ranging from prices below cost seeding the bottoming, stock depletion, revival of demand during post monsoon break before the winter etc.

The affirmative liquidity enhancing announcement of the Central Bank by issuing CNY 45 billion worth of 1-year bill in the open market cast a testorgenic spell on the market pushing the futures by CNY 200 per tonne or USD 30 per tonne.

Finished product revival had a cascading effect on the raw material prices leading to 7% growth in iron ore prices in less than a week.
Mills un-leased mid-term prices improvement having all the en-trappings of making merry in fair weather.

Rebar
20mm
HRB 400
LocationChange
Shanghai-0.4%
Hangzhou-0.5%
Nanjing0.5%
Jinan0.0%
Hefei0.0%
Fuzhou0.0%
Nanchang0.7%
Guangzhou-2.5%
Changsha-0.2%
Wuhan0.0%
Zhengzhou-0.3%
Beijing-1.7%
Tianjin-0.9%
Shijiazhuang-0.8%
Taiyuan-2.1%
Shenyang-3.8%
Harbin-1.3%
Chongqing-1.2%
Chengdu-2.3%
Guiyang-1.1%
Kunming0.0%
Xian0.0%
Lanzhou0.0%
Urumchi0.0%

Change is on July 28th 2010 as compared to July 26th 2010

HRC
4.75mm
Common
LocationChange %
Shanghai0.6%
Hangzhou-1.0%
Nanjing-1.0%
Jinan-0.5%
Hefei0.0%
Fuzhou0.9%
Nanchang0.0%
Guangzhou-1.6%
Changsha-0.5%
Wuhan-0.2%
Zhengzhou-0.7%
Beijing-1.7%
Tianjin-0.8%
Shijiazhuang-0.3%
Taiyuan-1.4%
Shenyang0.0%
Harbin-1.2%
Chongqing0.0%
Chengdu0.8%
Kunming0.0%
Xian0.0%
Lanzhou0.0%
Urumchi0.0%

Change is on July 28th 2010 as compared to July 26th 2010

Despite all the hullaballoo which is customary when sparks fly in a dull and desolate milieu it can barely camouflage the anemic demand . Chinese economy has witnessed downtrend in construction, automobile and white good segment from May to June. H2 is expected to be worse as the demand cycle troughs during winter.

The pessimism is aptly summed up by CEO and Chairman of ArcelorMittal Mr. LN Mittal statement the third quarter will be impacted by a combination of seasonal factors and the effects of the economic slowdown in China.

He predicted a subdued Outlook for Q3
1. EBITDA expected to be between USD 2.1 billion to USD 2.5 billion
2. Capacity utilization is expected to decrease to approximately 70% due to seasonal slowdown

Consequently, more market watchers are now convinced that last week’s price rebound was mainly driven by the futures and screen trading markets as well as spot market speculation.

However, others believe the downward market trend has been reversed, but that some slight price volatility is still inevitable as downstream users will need some time to accept new prices.

Despite all the uncertainty it can be conclusively said that the demand remaining subdued owing to slow pace of economic growth projected for H2 there is little respite discounting for hiccups.

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